2023年第38讲总第789讲

题目：Mortality response to the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: Two estimations of the excess mortality（新冠肺炎对韩国死亡率的影响：对超额死亡率的两种估计方式）

地点：太阳集团电子游戏516

时间：2023年11月9日13:30-16:00

主讲人：Doo-Sub KIM is an Emeritus Professor at Hanyang University. He is the Former President of the Asian Population Association, the Former President of the Population Association of Korea, and the Founding Director of the Center for SSK Multicultural Research at Hanyang University. He also serves as a Member of the IPUMS-International Advisory Board, the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota, and a Board Member of the International Scientific Advisory Committee for the Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) at Shanghai University. His main researchareas are fertility, demographic transition, cross-border marriage, and research methodologyHe has published 38 books/monographs and some 160 journal articles and book chapters.

内容简介：This study explores the impact that COVID-19 has had on mortality in South Korea, Government statistics on COVID-19 deaths are highly underestimated due to their dependency on the amount of COVID-19 confirmation tests and limitations in capturing deaths from other causes attributable to the pandemic crisis conditions. This study reviews the spread of COVID-19 and the distinctive features of COVID-19 deaths during the past three and half years of the pandemic. The analysis focused on estimating the amount of excess deathsdue to COVID-19 in two ways. Daily COVID-19 statistics from the Korea Disease Control and PreventiorAgency (KDCA), the weekly and monthly mortality data from Statistics Korea, and the weekly mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) were utilized. The results show that excess deaths over the COVID-19 pandemic were 2.5-3.1 times larger than the COVID-19 deaths reported by KDCA. Over half of the excess deaths occurred between November 2021 and April 2022, when the Omicron variant was widely spread in South Korea. A severe age disparity in the excess deaths was found. The number of excess deaths was negative among those under age 15. Around 40.5% and 62.9% of the excess deaths occured among male and female elderly aged 85 or over, respectively. Finally, due to a heavy composition of females in the elderly population, the number of female excess deaths was about 33.2% larger than male excess deaths. However, the COVID-19 fatality rate was around 13.6% higher for males than females.